You have eaten fourteen since September. You have not walked anywhere briskly since 2019. You are the reason the pie is dying. The Office for Pantry Security published its interim stocktake on Friday afternoon, the traditional hour for bad news, and the figure that matters is this: 412 million edible mince pies remain. At current consumption of 51 million a year, the last one is eaten on 24 December 2034. The average household has 2.3 pies in the cupboard and no plan. You have a plan for your phone. You have a plan for your hair. You do not have a plan for the pie.
The flour changed and nobody told the pie
In 2024 the fortified wheat flour specification was revised. Thiamine content in the national mince pie fell by 31 per cent. Nobody noticed for eight years because the pie still tasted of brown. Then the last tallow plant in Cheshire closed in March, and with it went the certified suet supply. No bakery has sourced any since. Read the following twice, slowly. Then a third time, because the first two readings did not go in.
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Edible reserve, October 2026 | 412 million pies |
| Annual consumption | 51 million pies |
| Projected depletion date | 24 December 2034 |
| Thiamine lost since 2024 | 31 per cent |
| Certified suet suppliers remaining | 0 |
| Reserve set aside for ceremonial use | 6 per cent |
Six per cent of the reserve has been set aside for ceremonial use at the Cabinet Office. You have not been invited. Do not write to them. They know what you did with the brandy butter.
The minister is minded to consult
Defra minister Helena Groat told the Commons that the government is minded to consult on a Heritage Mince Pie designation. Asked how many pies the designation would protect, she said six per cent. That is fewer pies than are in the minister’s own pantry, a figure obtained under freedom of information and read out here without any change of tone. The figure is eleven.
“The department is minded to consult, and will do so in due course,” said Helena Groat, Minister of State for Food Security and Rural Affairs.
A backbench MP asked whether the consultation would take longer than the eight years remaining. Groat said it would take as long as it takes. Translation for the slow of foot: longer than the pies.
“We are committed to a consultation that is robust, inclusive and properly sequenced,” said Crispin Vellacott, Director of Pastry Governance at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs.
Your household plan, which you will not follow
Here is your regimen. It is not negotiable. It is not a suggestion. It is the minimum.
- One pie per person per decade. Not per year. Per decade. Write the date on the box. Use a pen, not your memory, which is failing.
- Walk briskly to the nearest supermarket and apologise to the shelf. Not to staff. To the shelf. They have carried this for you.
- Keep a pie diary. Record every pie. If you cannot remember, that is the pie talking.
- Less egg. As a general measure. We will say no more about it.
Regarding the suet, the position is straightforward. The last tallow plant in Cheshire closed in March, and the certified supply went with it. This has no bearing on your eggs, which remain a matter for you and your conscience. Moving on.
The second table is what you will actually do.
| Instruction | Your likely action |
|---|---|
| One pie per decade | Fourteen before Sunday |
| Brisk walk to apologise to shelf | Drive to the large supermarket, buy a box of six |
| Keep a pie diary | Keep a pie |
| Less egg | More egg, and lie about it |
You will not follow this. I have seen your bin. I have seen it from the road. The wrappers are visible. I will not say which road. You know which road.
The last pie will be eaten in Barnsley and you will not be told until it is gone
On 23 December 2034, the final pie is scheduled to be eaten at a closed ceremony at a distribution depot in Barnsley. The invitation list has not been published. After the ceremony, the product will be replaced by a reconstituted fruit paste envelope, sold under the same name. The envelope contains no suet, no fortified flour and no fruit. The consultation on whether it may be called a pie remains open.
“The envelope is a like-for-like replacement in all the ways that matter to the consumer,” said Gareth Pindrop, Head of Legacy Bakery Transition at the Office for Pantry Security.
Your instruction is as follows. Walk briskly to Barnsley. Stand outside the depot. Apologise to the door. If you cannot manage the walk, that is your own fault. I will know. I am in the walls, dietetically speaking.
